ESPN Analytics gives Bears 95% chance of getting No. 1 draft pick via Panthers

With four games left, the numbers give the Bears near-certainty that they’ll at least pick in the top three.

SHARE ESPN Analytics gives Bears 95% chance of getting No. 1 draft pick via Panthers
Montez Sweat knocks down Bryce Young in a game.

As Bryce Young and the Panthers plummet, the Bears will reap the reward of getting their first-round draft pick.

Quinn Harris/Getty Images

The Bears have about as much at stake in the Panthers’ season as their own because they get the Panthers’ upcoming first-round draft pick.

When the Panthers lost 28-6 to the Saints on Sunday, they fell to 1-12 and maintained a two-game cushion with four games left in what the Bears hope will be a path to the No. 1 overall pick. The Bears’ pick was slotted for seventh after beating the Lions, with some movement possible depending on how the Titans and Giants fared Monday night.

ESPN Analytics’ latest projections gave the Bears a 95% chance of getting the No. 1 pick via the Panthers, a 98% likelihood of picking in the top two and 99% shot at a top-three pick. ESPN also calculated a 2% possibility of the Bears’ own pick being in the top three.

Every team the Panthers have left on their schedule currently is competing for a playoff spot: the Falcons, Packers, Jaguars and Buccaneers.

The Bears had the No. 1 overall pick this year, but traded down to No. 9 in a deal with the Panthers that brought them wide receiver DJ Moore, the Panthers’ first-round pick next year and their second-rounder in 2025.

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